August marked a broad seasonal cooling across the Bay Area. Closings declined year over year in 13 of 14 counties and month over month in 12, while months of supply increased from July in 13 counties. The shift reflects the typical late-summer slowdown as the market transitions from the spring/summer peak toward the fall market peak.

Mortgage rates ended July near their highs for the year, taking some momentum out of homebuyer demand. But in San Francisco, sales have been driven more by wealth creation than by mortgage rates: the AI boom has spiked demand, especially for family-ready homes in specific neighborhoods.

The Bay Area housing market is the center of national attention this summer. AI-driven wealth has offset persistently higher mortgage rates, pushing demand in a handful of neighborhoods to dramatic levels.

Our Housing Market Outlook is here to help you navigate a market that isn’t always easy to interpret. By examining the latest data, economic conditions, and emerging trends, we share our predictions for the year ahead to help you make more confident housing decisions.

The post 2026 Housing Market Outlook first appeared on Paragon Specific.

The Bay Area housing market hit a lot of national headlines in May. In San Francisco, Al and tech-driven demand has created aggressive bidding wars on the scarce inventory. Skyrocketing rents are back in the norm. Even the city’s condo market, which has been under pressure for six years, is showing signs of demand recovery.

For the first time in many years job creation in the Bay Area is positive and economic opportunity is attracting net inbound migration, despite the region’s chronic shortage of homes and affordability issues. It’s notable that other tech cities like Seattle and Austin are not seeing the boom in the real estate market related to Al. In fact, those cities are now sending more people to San Francisco than the reverse.

While the city dominates the headlines, many areas have not seen the massive wealth effect driving home buying demand like the city has. In this cycle, this resurgent demand is so far concentrated to a very small section in the city, and luxury markets in Peninsula and Marin.
For much of the region, interest rates matter more than stock market performance. In May, mortgage rates jumped higher with sharply higher inflation data. That tension between higher interest rates and the wealth effect is likely to continue for the rest of 2026. Inflation pressures have been pushing higher, and it seems unlikely that interest rates will dip again very soon.

The post June 2026 San Francisco House & Condo Markets Market Outlook first appeared on Paragon Specific.

The median HOUSE sales price in March 2026 hit $2,150,000, up 18% year-over-year, exceeding the previous peak of $2,050,000 in April 2022. The median CONDO sales price was $1,357,500, up 27% year-over-year, marking the second-highest monthly price ever after the $1,375,000 peak in April 2022.

22 luxury HOUSE sales of $5 million+ were reported in March 2026, up 83% year-over- year, surpassing the previous peak of 21 sales in June 2021. 24 luxury CONDO sales of $3 million+ were reported in March, up 380% year-over-year, exceeding the previous high of 17 sales in August 2021.

The number of homes listed for sale fell 28% year over year. The inadequate supply of listings – especially of houses – compared to soaring demand continues to pressurize the market as buyers compete furiously for scarce listings.

85% of house sales sold over list price with an average sale price 23% over list price, tied with April 2022 for highest overbid percentage ever. 62% of condo sales sold over list price with an average sale price 7% over list price, the highest overbid % since 2019. The average days on market to acceptance of offer was 29 days in March 2026, the fastest rate of sale since spring 2022. Price reductions fell 39% from March 2025.

The post San Francisco Home Prices, Market Conditions & Trends April 2026 first appeared on Paragon Specific.

Moving into spring, soaring buyer demand vs. an extremely inadequate supply of homes for sale continues to foster ferocious buyer competition, faster sales, more overbidding and rapidly rising home prices. Luxury home sales rose over 200% year over year to hit their highest month-of-February count ever. The upcoming months are typically among the most active of the year and median home sales prices often hit their calendar-year highs in spring – though that did not happen in 2025 due to autumn’s enormous AI-driven market boom. As has been the case in recent years, houses are seeing stronger market conditions than condos, but SF’s condo market is also rebounding dramatically. More affluent buyers continue to play an outsized role in demand and home- price appreciation.

The wild card in coming months is what sustained effects, if any, the Iran war may have on inflation, interest rates, financial markets and consumer confidence. Barring an extreme decline in economic conditions, we currently consider a significant negative impact on the city’s housing market unlikely.

The post San Francisco Home Prices, Market Conditions & Trends March 2026 first appeared on Paragon Specific.

While national home price appreciation is stuttering to a halt and many states and regions are seeing price declines, San Francisco’s median home sales prices continue to surge higher, a dynamic we expect to see continue in 2026. The underlying factors are an extremely inadequate supply of homes for sale vs. rapidly increasing demand due to the AI startup boom.

The post San Francisco Home Prices, Market Conditions & Trends February 2026 first appeared on Paragon Specific.

In 2025, Bay Area real estate markets started the year seeing strong buyer demand, but had the wind taken out of their sails by the political/economic uncertainty that soared in early spring. Then, in mid- late summer, stock markets rebounded to hit new highs, and interest rates began a sustained decline, initiating a shift in the psychology of buyers and sellers that is still developing.

The post San Francisco Home Prices, Market Conditions & Trends January 2026 first appeared on Paragon Specific.

The real estate market began its usual mid-winter holiday season slowdown in November, marked by a substantial decline in both listing and sales activity. This contraction typically speeds up through December – normally the year’s slowest month – before the market begins to wake up in mid-January.

As of the end of October, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq had reached new highs; 30-year mortgage rates hit their lowest point in over a year; inflation ticked up slightly to 3%; and the Fed made its second .25% reduction of its benchmark rate in 2025 (while cautioning that another reduction in December was not certain).

San Francisco has seen an astonishing strengthening of its real estate market in recent months, presumably due to its rapidly accelerating AI start-up boom.

Generally speaking, this summer’s market saw no large shifts in market dynamics beyond typical seasonal changes, and due to the AI boom, San Francisco remains one of the strongest markets in the Bay Area.

Over the past couple years, the AI boom has most dramatically affected the housing markets in Silicon Valley, with their established players like Nvidia.

Across most of the Bay Area, the severe economic volatility which prevailed in Q2 – and the absence of a meaningful decline in mortgage interest rates – generally caused a significant year-over-year weakening in the spring selling season, usually the most dynamic of the year.

Ongoing volatility in political/economic conditions – particularly the plunge in stock markets in April, which affected May home sales – took some of the wind out of the spring real estate market, usually the most dynamic of the year.

While most of the Bay Area saw significant shifts to more uncertain and uneven markets in April, the SF house market remained characterized by robust demand, though its condo market remained much softer.

It’s hard to know what to say regarding the staggering volatility and uncertainty that has recently characterized political and economic conditions, much less predict how they will play out over either the short or long term.

Market activity and demand – as defined by listings going into contract, speed of sale, and overbidding of list price – rose in February. Unlike other Bay Area markets, San Francisco has not seen a substantial increase in the number of homes for sale.

The Fed kept its benchmark rate unchanged; interest rates ticked down below 7%; stock markets remain high (though sometimes volatile); consumer confidence turned a bit unsure about the future.

In 2024, the median house sales price increased year over year. The numbers of new listings and sales rose from 2023, but volumes remained well below long-term norms. Fueled by rising stock markets, luxury home sales strongly outperformed the general market. There was a slight reduction in overbidding statistics, and, on average, listings took somewhat longer to sell. Details follow within this report.

In late November, Bay Area markets began moving into the mid-winter holiday slowdown, which in December typically results in the lowest counts of the year for new listings coming on market and homes going into contract.

Year over year, median house and condo sales prices were up in October 2024, 2% and 5.5% respectively.

On September 18th, the Federal Reserve Bank dropped its benchmark rate for the first time since 2020 – a very positive development for housing markets – and many analysts expect one or more additional cuts before the end of the year.

Autumn Market Begins with Lowest Interest Rates Since Spring 2023.

As of August 8th, mortgage rates had declined to their lowest point in over a year, while financial markets were experiencing very substantial volatility.

The median house sales price in Q2 2024 rose 6% from Q2 2023, while the median condo sales price declined by 2.5%.

The 3-month-rolling median house sales price in May, at $1,735,000, hit its highest value since mid-2022. The median condo sales price, $1,135,500, declined about 1% year over year.

Home prices, sales volume, luxury sales, the number of new listings, and overbidding – all increased as the market moved deeper into spring. But not every listing sells: Price reductions also rose in April. Preparing, pricing and marketing the home properly still matter.

Q2 May See the Hottest Market Since the Peak of the Pandemic Boom.

The Market Accelerates Rapidly Moving into Spring. There is a growing sense that in 2023 San Francisco hit its post-pandemic low – economically, socially, and certainly in media coverage and that it has now begun a significant recovery on all those fronts.

Open house visitor numbers have surged, new listings coming on market have risen, the pipeline of coming listings is filling up faster than last year, and the number of homes going into contract is climbing rapidly as the market wakes.

Dramatically Improving Economic Indicators Suggest a Brighter 2024 Housing Market. In the last 2 months of 2023, the average, weekly, 30-year mortgage interest rate dropped from 7.79% to 6.61%.   .  

A Sudden, Positive Shift in Economic Indicators. “For the third sixth straight week, mortgage rates trended down, as new data indicates that inflationary pressures are receding. The combination of continued economic strength, lower inflation and lower mortgage rates should likely.

Rising Interest Rates Continued to Impact Supply & Demand in October, But Early November Brings Big Shift in Economic Indicators.

Economic indicators have been challenging since the fall selling season began: Interest rates continued to rise through early October and stock markets generally continued to fall from mid- summer, YTD highs.

The surprisingly quick recovery [of the housing market] suggests that the residential real-estate downturn is turning out to be shorter and shallower than many housing economists expected after mortgage rates soared last year; There still aren’t enough homes for sale.

Generally speaking, the market slowed in July, a common seasonal trend, and August is usually one of the quietest months of the year though last year, a sudden, but short-lived drop in interest rates kindled buyer demand in August.

Underlying market and economic dynamics in 2023 have been a mixed bag of often contrary and volatile factors – including downward-trending inflation; interest rates bouncing between 6% and 7%; unceasing uncertainty regarding what the Fed will do next; substantial rebounds

Recapping the Spring 2023 Market. Median home sales prices have begun to recover from mid-winter lows, though remaining far below peak prices hit in spring 2022.

Looking at the overall Bay Area, buyer demand has continued to rebound from its late 2022 nadir. Though mortgage applications are still well down year over year, many buyers have accepted higher interest rates as the new normal and decided

The Market Continues to Recover, But with Many Dynamics at Play. Buyer demand continued to rebound from the depths of the mid-winter slowdown: The number and percentage of listings going into contract, and overbidding percentages continued to climb, and days-on-market

2023 Market Indicators Turn Positive (But Interest Rates Climb Again). After the acute decline in market activity occurring in the 2nd half of 2022, buyer demand rebounded dramatically and most market indicators turned positive in early 2023.

Early 2023 Data Suggests Buyers Are Beginning to Jump Back In. December is typically the month that sees the year’s lowest level of deal-making activity – i.e. listings accepting offers (going into contract) – which leads to January usually posting

In 2022, the market saw a dramatic shift from Q2 (spring), at which time the market peaked after a dramatic 10-year upcycle supercharged at its end by the pandemic boom, through the 2nd half of the year, when the market … Continue reading →

The post San Francisco Home Prices, Market Conditions & Trends January 2023 first appeared on Paragon Specific.

The changes in market dynamics that began in late spring/early summer 2022 generally continued in autumn due to the ongoing economic headwinds, including high inflation and interest rates, reduced consumer confidence, and volatile stock markets, though all have fluctuated significantly … Continue reading →

The post San Francisco Home Prices, Market Conditions & Trends December 2022 first appeared on Paragon Specific.

After a brief rebound in market activity in August, pursuant to what turned out to be a very temporary decline in interest rates and an associated rebound in financial markets, macroeconomic conditions shifted again – with interest rates climbing rapidly … Continue reading →

The post San Francisco Home Prices, Market Conditions & Trends November 2022 first appeared on Paragon Specific.

Virtually across the Bay Area, Q3 median sales prices retreated dramatically from their spring peaks, and SF was hit harder than most area markets. Part of this was due to seasonal trends – median sales prices often peak for the … Continue reading →

The post San Francisco Home Prices, Market Conditions & Trends October 2022 first appeared on Paragon Specific.

In early August, we mentioned agents reporting that buyer activity – renewed interest in getting back into the market, visits to open houses, and so on – was picking up due to a number of issues: Price reductions, less competition, … Continue reading →

The post San Francisco Home Prices, Market Conditions & Trends September 2022 first appeared on Paragon Specific.

Across the Bay Area, markets have continued to slow and cool. As illustrated in this report, dramatic changes in demand, inventory, overbidding, price reductions, and year-over-year appreciation rates have usually occurred.

The post San Francisco Home Prices, Market Conditions and Trends August 2022 first appeared on Paragon Specific.

Leaning into market headwinds, year-over-year appreciation rate falls. The impacts of this year’s severe economic headwinds – soaring inflation and interest rates, stock market declines, fears of recession – on Bay Area real estate markets are speeding up.    

The post San Francisco Home Prices, Market Conditions & Trends July 2022 first appeared on Paragon Specific.

Sales are declining, and the numbers of active listing and price reductions are increasing. But the homes that are selling are still, on average, selling for well over asking: Median sales prices and year-over-year appreciation rates remain high.    

The post San Francisco Home Prices, Market Conditions & Trends June 2022 first appeared on Paragon Specific.

In April 2022, the Bay Area continued to see appreciation, overbidding and days-on-market reflecting extremely intense demand. But sales are a lagging indicator reflecting offers accepted 3-6 weeks earlier, April sales mostly reflect buyers who locked in mortgage rates before … Continue reading →

The post San Francisco Home Prices, Market Conditions & Trends May 2022 first appeared on Paragon Specific.

Soaring interest rates & housing costs; continuing strong demand, low inventory of house listings and high market velocity. Sales were robust in Q1 for all property types, but the supply of house listings in particular was very low. 

The post San Francisco Home Prices, Market Conditions & Trends April 2022 first appeared on Paragon Specific.

So far in 2022, Bay Area real estate markets appear largely unfazed by higher interest rates, volatility in financial markets, and troubling international events. 

The post San Francisco Home Prices, Market Conditions & Trends March 2022 first appeared on Paragon Specific.

2021 was one of the most frenzied real estate markets ever, with buyer demand far exceeding the supply of listings available to buy – and all the usual indicators, including home price appreciation trends, reflected this severe imbalance. As is … Continue reading →

The post San Francisco Home Prices, Market Conditions & Trends February 2022 first appeared on Paragon Specific.

Seasonal fluctuations are common and it’s not unusual for median sales prices to peak for the year in spring Q2. Longer-term trends are more meaningful than short term changes.

The post San Francisco Home Prices, Market Conditions & Trends January 2022 first appeared on Paragon Specific.

November and December typically see very significant seasonal slowdowns in market activity and in January, we will issue our 2021 market review, looking back at what has certainly been one of the highest demand markets in history.

The post San Francisco Home Prices, Market Conditions & Trends December 2021 first appeared on Paragon Specific.

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Economists generally believe there should be a rational equilibrium in the cost of housing of different housing types. But after the pandemic hit, supply and demand shifted dramatically: SF median house prices are now up 13%, condo prices are flat, … Continue reading →

The post San Francisco September 2021 Report: Sales, Prices, Trends first appeared on Paragon Specific.

A 3 month rolling trends will illustrate market seasonality – typical seasonal ups and downs in median prices – as well as broad, longer-term trends. The Q2 2020 to Q2 2021 decline in mortgage interest rates was a positive factor … Continue reading →

The post Bay Area Housing Affordability, Q2 2021 first appeared on Paragon Specific.

In the first 6 months of 2021, over $6.7 billion in home sales were reported to MLS in San Francisco, 49% above the previous peak in 2018. 

The post San Francisco August 2021 Market Report: Sales, Prices, Trends first appeared on Paragon Specific.

Approximately 3,885 MLS sales occurred in the six months through mid-June 2021. 54% of MLS sales ere condos, 38% were houses, 6% TICs, 1% co-ops and 1% townhouses. Seasonal fluctuations are common and it’s not unusual for median sales prices … Continue reading →

The post San Francisco July 2021 Report: Sales, Prices, Trends first appeared on Paragon Specific.

Condo sales volume hits new peak; luxury condo and house sales hit new highs; inventory of listings declines amid heated demand: Another ferocious spring selling season in San Francisco.

The post San Francisco June 2021: Home Sales, Prices, Trends first appeared on Paragon Specific.

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The post Bay Area Real Estate – 1 Year After the Pandemic Hit first appeared on Paragon Specific.… …

The post San Francisco Real Estate Market Accelerates March 2021 Report first appeared on Paragon Specific.… …

Pandemic, shelter in place, mass unemployment, terrible financial hardships for many households and small businesses, new ways of working, office buildings empty, people move, rents plunge, dreadful fires, an anxious presidential election, interest rates to historic lows, stock markets to … Continue reading →

The post San Francisco Real Estate in 2020 first appeared on Paragon Specific.

Though the pandemic upended many normal seasonal trends this year, the market did begin its typical “holiday season” slowdown in November – however activity remained well above levels of last year. It is unknown how the latest Covid-19 circumstances may … Continue reading →

The post A Strange Year Begins Winding Down December 2020 San Francisco Real Estate first appeared on Paragon Specific.

SF house and condo markets have been affected differently by the pandemic. This report attempts a deeper dive into the data across the city and within different city districts. The market typically starts a big slowdown in mid-November, running through … Continue reading →

The post San Francisco House & Condo Markets Diverge – November 2020 Report first appeared on Paragon Specific.

The table below compares Q3 statistics across 5 years. Since the dynamics of the SF house and condo markets have significantly diverged since the pandemic struck – the condo market has been weaker – we broke some of the 2020 … Continue reading →

The post San Francisco: 7 Months After the Pandemic Hit | October 2020 Report first appeared on Paragon Specific.

Despite the terrible fires, SF had a very active month in listings going into contract in August, hitting a high point for the year and matching the high points of recent years. Surprisingly, the fires did not significantly impact the … Continue reading →

The post San Francisco Real Estate – A Complex Market September 2020 first appeared on Paragon Specific.

As illustrated below, the San Francisco market currently reflects a variety of both positive and negative indicators. Among Bay Area markets, the city is seeing the softest recovery from the initial shelter-in-place plunge in activity in early spring, while some … Continue reading →

Despite the ongoing health and economic crisis precipitated by COVID-19, the SF real estate market made a large recovery from the steep declines in March and April. The SF median house price hit a new monthly high in June ($1,800,000), … Continue reading →

Supply & demand statistics, median sales price trends, sales and values by city district, the luxury home market, and the ongoing effects of COVID-19 June 2020 Generally speaking, market activity – as measured by the number of listings going into … Continue reading →

May 2020 Crisis Update. Market activity begins to tick up after severe shelter-in-place plunge. Median home sales prices are up. Interest rates hit new low. Shelter-in-place caused steep drops in activity across the board in what is typically the busiest … Continue reading →

Note that there is a time lag – usually 3 to 6+ weeks – between a new listing coming on market, an offer being negotiated and accepted, and when the transaction actually closes sale. This means that almost all of … Continue reading →

The first thing to remember is that there is a time lag – usually 3 to 6+ weeks – between a new listing coming on market, an offer being negotiated and accepted, and when the transaction actually closes sale. This … Continue reading →

Below is a look at the past 30+ years of San Francisco Bay Area real estate boom and bust cycles. Financial-market cycles have been around for hundreds of years, from the Dutch tulip mania of the 1600’s through today’s speculative … Continue reading →

There is a lot going on in the world right now and we won’t pretend to know how things will turn out or affect the local real estate market over the next few months. In the meantime, this report will … Continue reading →

It’s important to note that the Bay Area contains many different markets and market segments, sometimes following diverging trends in supply and demand, and home-price appreciation. Most of the materials in this report reflect overall trends for the entire region. … Continue reading →

Generally speaking, after years of high appreciation rates, annual 2019 Bay Area median home prices went down a little bit, went up a little bit or basically remained unchanged as compared to 2018. SF hit new quarterly price highs in … Continue reading →

When the media reports on the “Bay Area median home price,” it’s worth remembering that SF is a relatively small market compared to the big 3 counties. Appreciation in Very Expensive Markets Based on the calculations of an algorithm created … Continue reading →

Using six-month-rolling figures for monthly median sales prices smooths out the often meaningless monthly fluctuations to illustrate broad, long-term appreciation trends with more clarity. Home Sales Volume by Month A crystal clear illustration of the role of seasonality in the … Continue reading →

Neighborhood House & Condo Prices; Short-Term & Long-Term Appreciation Trends; Population Migration In & Out of the City. After the heat of the spring market, activity typically slows down markedly in July and August. In September, listings start pouring on … Continue reading →

Note that it is not unusual for median home sales prices to peak for the calendar year in spring (Q2). This is due not only to heightened buyer demand, but also to the extreme seasonality of the luxury home market … Continue reading →

Home Prices, Appreciation & Ownership Costs; Affordability Percentages, Household Incomes, Interest Rates, Rents & Homelessness. August 2019 Report – including 30 illustrative charts. Housing affordability may be the largest social and political issue in the Bay Area, and the effects … Continue reading →

Sales & Values by District and Price Segment, Special Circumstance Sales, Market Seasonality, the Luxury Home Market & Foreign Buyers. The May Case-Shiller Home Price Index was released in late July for the 5-county SF metro area. This chart illustrates … Continue reading →

The CoreLogic S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index does not evaluate median sales price changes, but employs its own proprietary algorithm to measure home price appreciation over time. Since its indices cover large areas – for example, the San Francisco Metro … Continue reading →

An interesting 2019 so far: Stock markets have hit new peaks; interest rates have hit multi-year lows; the SF unemployment rate dropped to a historic low; Bay Area unicorn IPOs have rolled out one after the other; SF residential and … Continue reading →

An interesting 2019 so far: Stock markets have hit new peaks; interest rates hit multi-year lows; the SF unemployment rate dropped to a historic low; Bay Area unicorn IPOs have rolled out one after the other; SF residential and office … Continue reading →

High stock markets, low interest rates, surging luxury home sales, limited inventory, a spring full of unicorn IPOs, and San Francisco – once again -hits new highs in median home sales prices. July 2019 Update After 2 quarters of no … Continue reading →

Below is a look at the past 30+ years of San Francisco Bay Area real estate boom and bust cycles. Financial-market cycles have been around for hundreds of years, from the Dutch tulip mania of the 1600’s through today’s speculative … Continue reading →

High-demand/low-inventory spring market brings median home sales prices bouncing back to 2018 peaks. San Francisco luxury home sales hit new monthly high. Median Home Sales Prices We consider 3-month rolling median sales prices to be more reliable than single month figures, … Continue reading →

The CoreLogic S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index does not evaluate median sales price changes, but employs its own proprietary algorithm to measure home price appreciation over time. Since its indices cover large areas – for example, the San Francisco Metro … Continue reading →

With April’s end, we now have 2 months of spring season data unaffected by the end of 2018, when financial markets plunged. As of early May 2019, stock markets have recovered to hit new highs, interest rates are far lower … Continue reading →

A substantial portion of Q1 statistics reflect new listings and accepted offers occurring during the mid-winter market doldrums (Thanksgiving to mid-January). In November and December 2018, the stock market plunged drastically from its all-time high in September, and interest rates … Continue reading →