A Sudden, Positive Shift in Economic Indicators. “For the third sixth straight week, mortgage rates trended down, as new data indicates that inflationary pressures are receding. The combination of continued economic strength, lower inflation and lower mortgage rates should likely … Continue reading →

The post San Francisco Home Prices, Market Conditions & Trends December 2023 first appeared on Paragon Specific.

Rising Interest Rates Continued to Impact Supply & Demand in October, But Early November Brings Big Shift in Economic Indicators.            

The post San Francisco Home Prices, Market Conditions & Trends November 2023 first appeared on Paragon Specific.

Economic indicators have been challenging since the fall selling season began: Interest rates continued to rise through early October and stock markets generally continued to fall from mid- summer, YTD highs.        

The post San Francisco Home Prices, Market Conditions & Trends October 2023 first appeared on Paragon Specific.

“The surprisingly quick recovery [of the housing market] suggests that the residential real-estate downturn is turning out to be shorter and shallower than many housing economists expected after mortgage rates soared last year…There still aren’t enough homes for sale to … Continue reading →

The post San Francisco Home Prices, Market Conditions & Trends September 2023 first appeared on Paragon Specific.

Generally speaking, the market slowed in July, a common seasonal trend, and August is usually one of the quietest months of the year though last year, a sudden, but short-lived drop in interest rates kindled buyer demand in August. Underlying … Continue reading →

The post San Francisco Home Prices, Market Conditions & Trends August 2023 first appeared on Paragon Specific.

Underlying market and economic dynamics in 2023 have been a mixed bag of often contrary and volatile factors – including downward-trending inflation; interest rates bouncing between 6% and 7%; unceasing uncertainty regarding what the Fed will do next; substantial rebounds … Continue reading →

The post San Francisco Home Prices, Market Conditions & Trends July 2023 first appeared on Paragon Specific.

Recapping the Spring 2023 Market. Median home sales prices have begun to recover from mid-winter lows, though remaining far below peak prices hit in spring 2022.        

The post San Francisco Home Prices, Market Conditions & Trends June 2023 first appeared on Paragon Specific.

Looking at the overall Bay Area, buyer demand has continued to rebound from its late 2022 nadir. Though mortgage applications are still well down year over year, many buyers have accepted higher interest rates as the new normal and decided … Continue reading →

The post San Francisco Home Prices, Market Conditions & Trends May 2023 first appeared on Paragon Specific.

The Market Continues to Recover, But with Many Dynamics at Play. Buyer demand continued to rebound from the depths of the mid-winter slowdown: The number and percentage of listings going into contract, and overbidding percentages continued to climb, and days-on-market … Continue reading →

The post San Francisco Home Prices, Market Conditions & Trends April 2023 first appeared on Paragon Specific.

2023 Market Indicators Turn Positive (But Interest Rates Climb Again). After the acute decline in market activity occurring in the 2nd half of 2022, buyer demand rebounded dramatically and most market indicators turned positive in early 2023: Open house traffic, … Continue reading →

The post San Francisco Home Prices, Market Conditions & Trends March 2023 first appeared on Paragon Specific.

Early 2023 Data Suggests Buyers Are Beginning to Jump Back In. December is typically the month that sees the year’s lowest level of deal-making activity – i.e. listings accepting offers (going into contract) – which leads to January usually posting … Continue reading →

The post San Francisco Home Prices, Market Conditions & Trends February 2023 first appeared on Paragon Specific.

In 2022, the market saw a dramatic shift from Q2 (spring), at which time the market peaked after a dramatic 10-year upcycle supercharged at its end by the pandemic boom, through the 2nd half of the year, when the market … Continue reading →

The post San Francisco Home Prices, Market Conditions & Trends January 2023 first appeared on Paragon Specific.

The changes in market dynamics that began in late spring/early summer 2022 generally continued in autumn due to the ongoing economic headwinds, including high inflation and interest rates, reduced consumer confidence, and volatile stock markets, though all have fluctuated significantly … Continue reading →

The post San Francisco Home Prices, Market Conditions & Trends December 2022 first appeared on Paragon Specific.

After a brief rebound in market activity in August, pursuant to what turned out to be a very temporary decline in interest rates and an associated rebound in financial markets, macroeconomic conditions shifted again – with interest rates climbing rapidly … Continue reading →

The post San Francisco Home Prices, Market Conditions & Trends November 2022 first appeared on Paragon Specific.

Virtually across the Bay Area, Q3 median sales prices retreated dramatically from their spring peaks, and SF was hit harder than most area markets. Part of this was due to seasonal trends – median sales prices often peak for the … Continue reading →

The post San Francisco Home Prices, Market Conditions & Trends October 2022 first appeared on Paragon Specific.

In early August, we mentioned agents reporting that buyer activity – renewed interest in getting back into the market, visits to open houses, and so on – was picking up due to a number of issues: Price reductions, less competition, … Continue reading →

The post San Francisco Home Prices, Market Conditions & Trends September 2022 first appeared on Paragon Specific.

Across the Bay Area, markets have continued to slow and cool. As illustrated in this report, dramatic changes in demand, inventory, overbidding, price reductions, and year-over-year appreciation rates have usually occurred.

The post San Francisco Home Prices, Market Conditions and Trends August 2022 first appeared on Paragon Specific.

Leaning into market headwinds, year-over-year appreciation rate falls. The impacts of this year’s severe economic headwinds – soaring inflation and interest rates, stock market declines, fears of recession – on Bay Area real estate markets are speeding up.    

The post San Francisco Home Prices, Market Conditions & Trends July 2022 first appeared on Paragon Specific.

Sales are declining, and the numbers of active listing and price reductions are increasing. But the homes that are selling are still, on average, selling for well over asking: Median sales prices and year-over-year appreciation rates remain high.    

The post San Francisco Home Prices, Market Conditions & Trends June 2022 first appeared on Paragon Specific.

In April 2022, the Bay Area continued to see appreciation, overbidding and days-on-market reflecting extremely intense demand. But sales are a lagging indicator reflecting offers accepted 3-6 weeks earlier, April sales mostly reflect buyers who locked in mortgage rates before … Continue reading →

The post San Francisco Home Prices, Market Conditions & Trends May 2022 first appeared on Paragon Specific.

Soaring interest rates & housing costs; continuing strong demand, low inventory of house listings and high market velocity. Sales were robust in Q1 for all property types, but the supply of house listings in particular was very low. 

The post San Francisco Home Prices, Market Conditions & Trends April 2022 first appeared on Paragon Specific.

So far in 2022, Bay Area real estate markets appear largely unfazed by higher interest rates, volatility in financial markets, and troubling international events. 

The post San Francisco Home Prices, Market Conditions & Trends March 2022 first appeared on Paragon Specific.

2021 was one of the most frenzied real estate markets ever, with buyer demand far exceeding the supply of listings available to buy – and all the usual indicators, including home price appreciation trends, reflected this severe imbalance. As is … Continue reading →

The post San Francisco Home Prices, Market Conditions & Trends February 2022 first appeared on Paragon Specific.

Seasonal fluctuations are common and it’s not unusual for median sales prices to peak for the year in spring Q2. Longer-term trends are more meaningful than short term changes.

The post San Francisco Home Prices, Market Conditions & Trends January 2022 first appeared on Paragon Specific.

November and December typically see very significant seasonal slowdowns in market activity and in January, we will issue our 2021 market review, looking back at what has certainly been one of the highest demand markets in history.

The post San Francisco Home Prices, Market Conditions & Trends December 2021 first appeared on Paragon Specific.

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Economists generally believe there should be a rational equilibrium in the cost of housing of different housing types. But after the pandemic hit, supply and demand shifted dramatically: SF median house prices are now up 13%, condo prices are flat, … Continue reading →

The post San Francisco September 2021 Report: Sales, Prices, Trends first appeared on Paragon Specific.

A 3 month rolling trends will illustrate market seasonality – typical seasonal ups and downs in median prices – as well as broad, longer-term trends. The Q2 2020 to Q2 2021 decline in mortgage interest rates was a positive factor … Continue reading →

The post Bay Area Housing Affordability, Q2 2021 first appeared on Paragon Specific.

In the first 6 months of 2021, over $6.7 billion in home sales were reported to MLS in San Francisco, 49% above the previous peak in 2018. 

The post San Francisco August 2021 Market Report: Sales, Prices, Trends first appeared on Paragon Specific.

Approximately 3,885 MLS sales occurred in the six months through mid-June 2021. 54% of MLS sales ere condos, 38% were houses, 6% TICs, 1% co-ops and 1% townhouses. Seasonal fluctuations are common and it’s not unusual for median sales prices … Continue reading →

The post San Francisco July 2021 Report: Sales, Prices, Trends first appeared on Paragon Specific.

Condo sales volume hits new peak; luxury condo and house sales hit new highs; inventory of listings declines amid heated demand: Another ferocious spring selling season in San Francisco.

The post San Francisco June 2021: Home Sales, Prices, Trends first appeared on Paragon Specific.

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The post Bay Area Real Estate – 1 Year After the Pandemic Hit first appeared on Paragon Specific.… …

The post San Francisco Real Estate Market Accelerates March 2021 Report first appeared on Paragon Specific.… …

Pandemic, shelter in place, mass unemployment, terrible financial hardships for many households and small businesses, new ways of working, office buildings empty, people move, rents plunge, dreadful fires, an anxious presidential election, interest rates to historic lows, stock markets to … Continue reading →

The post San Francisco Real Estate in 2020 first appeared on Paragon Specific.

Though the pandemic upended many normal seasonal trends this year, the market did begin its typical “holiday season” slowdown in November – however activity remained well above levels of last year. It is unknown how the latest Covid-19 circumstances may … Continue reading →

The post A Strange Year Begins Winding Down December 2020 San Francisco Real Estate first appeared on Paragon Specific.

SF house and condo markets have been affected differently by the pandemic. This report attempts a deeper dive into the data across the city and within different city districts. The market typically starts a big slowdown in mid-November, running through … Continue reading →

The post San Francisco House & Condo Markets Diverge – November 2020 Report first appeared on Paragon Specific.

The table below compares Q3 statistics across 5 years. Since the dynamics of the SF house and condo markets have significantly diverged since the pandemic struck – the condo market has been weaker – we broke some of the 2020 … Continue reading →

The post San Francisco: 7 Months After the Pandemic Hit | October 2020 Report first appeared on Paragon Specific.

Despite the terrible fires, SF had a very active month in listings going into contract in August, hitting a high point for the year and matching the high points of recent years. Surprisingly, the fires did not significantly impact the … Continue reading →

The post San Francisco Real Estate – A Complex Market September 2020 first appeared on Paragon Specific.

As illustrated below, the San Francisco market currently reflects a variety of both positive and negative indicators. Among Bay Area markets, the city is seeing the softest recovery from the initial shelter-in-place plunge in activity in early spring, while some … Continue reading →

Despite the ongoing health and economic crisis precipitated by COVID-19, the SF real estate market made a large recovery from the steep declines in March and April. The SF median house price hit a new monthly high in June ($1,800,000), … Continue reading →

Supply & demand statistics, median sales price trends, sales and values by city district, the luxury home market, and the ongoing effects of COVID-19 June 2020 Generally speaking, market activity – as measured by the number of listings going into … Continue reading →

May 2020 Crisis Update. Market activity begins to tick up after severe shelter-in-place plunge. Median home sales prices are up. Interest rates hit new low. Shelter-in-place caused steep drops in activity across the board in what is typically the busiest … Continue reading →

Note that there is a time lag – usually 3 to 6+ weeks – between a new listing coming on market, an offer being negotiated and accepted, and when the transaction actually closes sale. This means that almost all of … Continue reading →

The first thing to remember is that there is a time lag – usually 3 to 6+ weeks – between a new listing coming on market, an offer being negotiated and accepted, and when the transaction actually closes sale. This … Continue reading →

Below is a look at the past 30+ years of San Francisco Bay Area real estate boom and bust cycles. Financial-market cycles have been around for hundreds of years, from the Dutch tulip mania of the 1600’s through today’s speculative … Continue reading →

There is a lot going on in the world right now and we won’t pretend to know how things will turn out or affect the local real estate market over the next few months. In the meantime, this report will … Continue reading →

It’s important to note that the Bay Area contains many different markets and market segments, sometimes following diverging trends in supply and demand, and home-price appreciation. Most of the materials in this report reflect overall trends for the entire region. … Continue reading →

Generally speaking, after years of high appreciation rates, annual 2019 Bay Area median home prices went down a little bit, went up a little bit or basically remained unchanged as compared to 2018. SF hit new quarterly price highs in … Continue reading →

When the media reports on the “Bay Area median home price,” it’s worth remembering that SF is a relatively small market compared to the big 3 counties. Appreciation in Very Expensive Markets Based on the calculations of an algorithm created … Continue reading →

Using six-month-rolling figures for monthly median sales prices smooths out the often meaningless monthly fluctuations to illustrate broad, long-term appreciation trends with more clarity. Home Sales Volume by Month A crystal clear illustration of the role of seasonality in the … Continue reading →

Neighborhood House & Condo Prices; Short-Term & Long-Term Appreciation Trends; Population Migration In & Out of the City. After the heat of the spring market, activity typically slows down markedly in July and August. In September, listings start pouring on … Continue reading →

Note that it is not unusual for median home sales prices to peak for the calendar year in spring (Q2). This is due not only to heightened buyer demand, but also to the extreme seasonality of the luxury home market … Continue reading →

Home Prices, Appreciation & Ownership Costs; Affordability Percentages, Household Incomes, Interest Rates, Rents & Homelessness. August 2019 Report – including 30 illustrative charts. Housing affordability may be the largest social and political issue in the Bay Area, and the effects … Continue reading →

Sales & Values by District and Price Segment, Special Circumstance Sales, Market Seasonality, the Luxury Home Market & Foreign Buyers. The May Case-Shiller Home Price Index was released in late July for the 5-county SF metro area. This chart illustrates … Continue reading →

The CoreLogic S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index does not evaluate median sales price changes, but employs its own proprietary algorithm to measure home price appreciation over time. Since its indices cover large areas – for example, the San Francisco Metro … Continue reading →

An interesting 2019 so far: Stock markets have hit new peaks; interest rates have hit multi-year lows; the SF unemployment rate dropped to a historic low; Bay Area unicorn IPOs have rolled out one after the other; SF residential and … Continue reading →

An interesting 2019 so far: Stock markets have hit new peaks; interest rates hit multi-year lows; the SF unemployment rate dropped to a historic low; Bay Area unicorn IPOs have rolled out one after the other; SF residential and office … Continue reading →

High stock markets, low interest rates, surging luxury home sales, limited inventory, a spring full of unicorn IPOs, and San Francisco – once again -hits new highs in median home sales prices. July 2019 Update After 2 quarters of no … Continue reading →

Below is a look at the past 30+ years of San Francisco Bay Area real estate boom and bust cycles. Financial-market cycles have been around for hundreds of years, from the Dutch tulip mania of the 1600’s through today’s speculative … Continue reading →

High-demand/low-inventory spring market brings median home sales prices bouncing back to 2018 peaks. San Francisco luxury home sales hit new monthly high. Median Home Sales Prices We consider 3-month rolling median sales prices to be more reliable than single month figures, … Continue reading →

The CoreLogic S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index does not evaluate median sales price changes, but employs its own proprietary algorithm to measure home price appreciation over time. Since its indices cover large areas – for example, the San Francisco Metro … Continue reading →

With April’s end, we now have 2 months of spring season data unaffected by the end of 2018, when financial markets plunged. As of early May 2019, stock markets have recovered to hit new highs, interest rates are far lower … Continue reading →

A substantial portion of Q1 statistics reflect new listings and accepted offers occurring during the mid-winter market doldrums (Thanksgiving to mid-January). In November and December 2018, the stock market plunged drastically from its all-time high in September, and interest rates … Continue reading →

Spring 2018 was one of the hottest markets in SF and the Bay Area in the last 2 decades. Then the market began to cool in summer and autumn – demand, sales and appreciation rates generally dropping, while supply and … Continue reading →

As of early February, the government shutdown is over – at least for a little while – the stock market has recovered dramatically from its late 2018 plunge, and interest rates are well down from November highs. A good number … Continue reading →

There were almost too many local, national and international political, economic, social and ecological factors impacting the 2018 market to count. In the first half of the year, market conditions were about as hot as they’ve ever been, and there … Continue reading →

We are always hesitant to make too much of a single month’s or a few months’ data: Short-term fluctuations in median sales prices and other market statistics are not uncommon and don’t always give definitive perspective as to where the … Continue reading →

The CoreLogic S&P Case-Shiller high-price-tier Home Price Index for the 5- county San Francisco Metro Area, illustrated above by the blue line, applies best to more expensive Bay Area housing markets such as most of San Francisco, Marin, San Mateo … Continue reading →

Autumn markets in counties around the Bay Area have seen significant shifts, with wide variance in the magnitude of these changes between counties. So far, San Francisco itself has seen less dramatic changes than other local markets such as Santa … Continue reading →

Due mostly to seasonal issues, median sales prices typically drop in Q3 from Q2 peaks, and did so this year as well. The median SF house price was up 15% and the median condo price was up 4% from Q3 … Continue reading →

The big political issue facing the market is CA Prop 10, which, if passed in November, repeals the limits on local rent control laws enacted in the Costa-Hawkins Rental Housing Act. This would almost certainly have negative ramifications for owners … Continue reading →

The CoreLogic S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index does not evaluate median sales price changes, but employs its own proprietary algorithm to measure home price appreciation over time. Since its indices cover large areas – for example, the San Francisco Metro … Continue reading →

September is typically the single month with the highest number of new listings coming on market in San Francisco, a big spike in inventory which fuels the relatively short autumn selling season. Very early indications are that this September may … Continue reading →

We are pleased to announce that Paragon Real Estate has joined forces with Compass in order to deliver a new level of support and service for our clients. Founded in 2012, Compass is a real estate technology company now operating … Continue reading →

Seasonality typically affects inventory levels, buyer demand and median home prices, often in very significant ways – as is illustrated in the following charts. However, it is not the only factor affecting market conditions and trends – general economic conditions and financial … Continue reading →

The Multi-Unit Residential Property Markets of San Francisco, Alameda & Marin Counties This report generally separates out the 2-4 unit and the 5+ unit apartment building markets, since they typically have different dynamics and values. All the statistics below are … Continue reading →

Median sales price is that price at which half the sales occurred for less and half for more. Average dollar per square foot reflects the livable interior space of a home and does not include garages, storage, rooms built without … Continue reading →

By any measure, the heat of the San Francisco market in the first half of 2018 has been among the most blistering ever. Probably only 3 or 4 other periods over the past 50 years have seen a comparable intensity … Continue reading →

The county and city appreciation percentages in the chart above were calculated by averaging changes in both median sales prices and average dollar per square foot values. We also incorporated S&P Case-Shiller SF metro area calculations based upon its algorithm … Continue reading →

The California Association of Realtors recently released its Housing Affordability Index (HAI) for the 1st quarter of 2018, which measures the percentage of households that can afford to buy the median priced single family dwelling (house). In this analysis, affordability … Continue reading →

As seen in the chart below, so far in 2018, SF luxury home sales have been very strong, higher than in any previous year since the recovery began in 2012. The recent stock market volatility notwithstanding, the economic confidence that … Continue reading →

Before discussing neighborhood values, appreciation rates and market cycles, here are 3 overview charts on the entire city market. Citywide Home Values & Trends On a 3-month-rolling basis, median home sales prices in San Francisco yet again hit new highs … Continue reading →

Since Case-Shiller Indices cover large areas – 5 counties in the SF Metro Area – which themselves contain communities and neighborhoods of widely varying home prices, the C-S chart numbers do not refer to specific prices, but instead reflect home prices as compared … Continue reading →

Consumer confidence is still soaring, and buyers continue to push aside concerns about recent financial market volatility, federal tax law changes affecting Bay Area homeowners, and interest rate increases, to fuel heated neighborhood markets throughout San Francisco. Houses have become … Continue reading →

Out of recession comes recovery; recovery builds into market over-exuberance; over-exuberance leads to negative adjustment; negative adjustment sparks recession. Begin again.The scale, length and triggers of each part of different financial and real estate cycles can vary dramatically, but the … Continue reading →

The real estate markets in the SF Bay Area are parts in an overall economic reality that includes a number of financial, demographic and psychological components – all of which are impacting each other in constantly changing ways. Some are … Continue reading →

The sources of the data behind the below (and many more) articles: an online survey by a PR company; an analysis of traffic on a real estate website; the alleged cost of a U-Haul to Las Vegas; anecdotal opinions from … Continue reading →

Most of the charts below come from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. We have not had time to comment on each chart and what we believe its significance to be (and, in any case, we are probably unqualified … Continue reading →

The great advantage of reviewing annual data is how often the market trend lines clarify into a straightforward dynamic, instead of the constant up and down fluctuations often seen in monthly or quarterly data charts. (Monthly data is constantly being … Continue reading →

So far in 2018, the market seems to have brushed aside any concerns about increasing home prices, rising interest rates, and new federal tax law changes. It is still very early in the year to come to definitive conclusions about … Continue reading →

Since Case-Shiller Indices cover large areas – 5 counties in the SF Metro Area – which themselves contain communities and neighborhoods of widely varying home prices, the C-S chart numbers do not refer to specific prices, but instead reflect home prices as compared … Continue reading →

After cooling somewhat in late 2015 and 2016, the San Francisco luxury home market bounced back in 2017 to hit new highs in the number of sales. Note: Our report online contains several dozen updated analyses of the San Francisco … Continue reading →

There are plenty of fun things to enjoy in the city this Spring. Take a peek at these events in our Spring 2018 events guide.

The California Association of Realtors recently released its Housing Affordability Index (HAI) for the 4th quarter of 2017, which measures the percentage of households that can afford to buy the median priced single family dwelling (house). In this analysis, affordability … Continue reading →

Our newly updated median home price maps for the entire Bay Area by city, for San Francisco by neighborhood, and then specifically for the Marin, Diablo Valley & Lamorinda, and Wine Country markets. To access them, click on the map … Continue reading →

I am often asked how one development or another might affect SF and Bay Area real estate markets – tax law changes, interest rates, soaring stock markets, foreign buyers, migration trends, housing affordability, climate change, new home construction, and so … Continue reading →